Struggle with the imprecise nature of consulting?

Many MBB consultants struggle with being imprecise in consulting. This post explains when high level estimates are legitimate, how to use them safely, and how to stop feeling like a fraud.

Struggle with the imprecise nature of consulting?

Does it bother you that sometimes you must be 80/20 in your judgment and recommendations?

Usually, former academics and engineers struggle with that a lot. They are used to the precise nature of their fields, where numbers and facts matter a lot. But in consulting, it’s not always the case. High-level estimates, lenses, and frames often drive decision-making. That’s a tough adjustment to make.

Let’s consider the most extreme case of imprecision when partners ask you to use POOMA numbers. Consultants jokingly call it the ‘pulled out of my ass’ approach.

By the way, don’t take this joke too literally. You should always have some solid logical justification for your numbers, even if it’s a high-level estimation.

Here’s how one McKinsey consultant described his concerns.

“I just don’t feel comfortable using POOMA numbers. But that’s exactly what the partner asked us to do. I feel like a fraud. That’s not the McKinsey standard I envisioned.”

In this post, I want to explain to you why partners do it and how you can deal with that. If you understand their perspective, you are better positioned to navigate your job more effectively.

But first, let’s discuss why consultants feel uncomfortable.

Let me share my thoughts when I was a consultant myself. When I joined McKinsey, I had a set of assumptions and preconceptions about consulting. I actually don’t know how they appeared in my head.

I thought we, as McKinsey, had to be precise in everything we do.

And I felt this immense pressure. I thought that if I made an even tiny mistake, I would somehow let down the whole McKinsey firm. And it may result in some financial or even legal consequences. The fear was real.

That’s why every time managers and partners asked me to do some high-level estimation, I felt extremely uncomfortable.

As a result, I often wasted time where it was not necessary. Basically, my judgment was poor. I couldn’t tell the difference between important and unimportant issues. This irritated my leaders so much.

But let me reframe this problem for you.

There are a few situations where it’s absolutely reasonable to use POOMA numbers.

1. A calibration shot

Most junior consultants imagine consulting work is like a black box. Clients ask questions, super smart consultants think hard, and come up with perfect answers.

But it’s a very simplistic, romanticized, and linear understanding of consulting work.

In reality, we want to co-create answers together with clients. Why? Answers that weren’t co-created will have much less buy-in, impact, and stickiness.

But clients don’t react well to blank pages. They need something to start with. That’s why putting some number on the page could be the first step in a multi-step problem-solving journey.

It’s a calibration shot. You know, like snipers shoot the first bullet to use it as a reference point, and then they hit the target with the second one.

The same with POOMA numbers. They might not be super precise. But they can trigger a reaction from clients. You are simply putting a flag in the ground so people have something to push against. You are creating a hypothesis to stimulate thinking, not engraving eternal truth in stone.

2. A ballpark estimate

Sometimes it’s a different situation.

You may deal with a question in which a ballpark estimate will suffice.

You don’t need a precise number to make a decision. The cost of the mistake is negligible and not material.

Let me give you an example to illustrate this point.

Imagine you are traveling to another city and you need to pack your clothes.

You ask someone, “What is the weather like there this time of year?” They say, “Usually it’s between 20 and 30 degrees.”

Do you need today’s precise forecast to pack? Is it going to be 22.3 or 24.1 degrees? Of course not.

You heard “summer,” “20 to 30,” and your decision is obvious. Shorts, t-shirts, and maybe a light jacket in the worst-case scenario.

In consulting, you make lots of micro decisions like that. You make them, and move forward. If needed, you can clarify them later as long as the logic is right.

You don’t always need the number to be precise to the second decimal to decide whether something is “material.” Sometimes it is enough to know that you are in the right order of magnitude.

Here, POOMA is not a random guess. At its best, it is a ballpark estimate based on pattern recognition, basic logic, life experience, and whatever limited data you have. Its purpose is to answer two questions:

• Are we in the right ballpark?

• Do we need more precision, given the stakes?

If the answer to the second question is no, then wasting time on making it more precise is just self-soothing perfectionism, which will make your leaders frustrated with you.

A word of caution

But be careful.

Now the uncomfortable part.

Don’t forget the ancient Latin proverb:

“Quod licet Iovi, non licet bovi”

“What is allowed for Jupiter is not allowed for the ox.”

As a junior consultant, you cannot behave like a partner.

You cannot say to a partner that you POOMAed that number. Especially, if you made a wrong judgment call, and that number actually ends up being pretty important, and precision is critical. That’s how you get into trouble.

You are not there yet.

So here’s the simple and practical rule of thumb for you:

Don’t use POOMA yourself. Always have sound sources and clear reasoning for the numbers you use, even for the high-level estimates.

But be comfortable when your leaders do that. They might have some other tactical reasons for using it. Trust them, they do it longer than you, and they might know more than you.

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